Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture
We've reached the end of our Oscar preview, which means it's time to look at the ten films nominated for the film industry's highest award: Best Picture of the year. As we run through all ten nominees, I'll provide my own commentary on why I think they might win. At the end, I'll reveal my last predictions and who I think ultimately deserves top honors.
BLACK SWANWhy It Might Win: Aronofsky's bleak, claustrophobic psychothriller was certainly the year's cross-over art movie. It was one of the top 30 grossing films at the box office, despite being a very challenging and often inaccessible work. Anchored by Natalie Portman's already-legendary performance of a ballerina pushing herself to the edge both physically and mentally, Black Swan has a lot going in its favor. It could find itself with a surprising victory if the Academy voters are won over by sheer style and emotional weight.
THE FIGHTERWhy It Might Win: I fully expect The Fighter to take home both Supporting Actor/Actress awards, so already this is a movie that cannot be ignored. Even beyond Christian Bale and Melissa Leo, this film is full of stellar performances. Amy Adams has her own Supporting Actress nod this year, while Mark Wahlberg has been drastically underrated for his quiet, reflective character at the film's center. This is very much a traditional Best Picture-type film, with a strong ensemble cast, an uplifting underdog story and competent directing. In a year featuring many unique and unorthodox Best Picture nominees, voters could find solace in the good ol' comfort food of a boxing flick.
INCEPTIONWhy It Might Win: No acting or directing nominations are rarely good signs for a Best Picture nominee. However, not unlike last year's Avatar, the technical grandeur of Inception is worth noting. What's more, Inception features a far more compelling story at its heart than Avatar, fueled by Christopher Nolan's Writers'-Guild-Award-winning script. Inception also won over the masses, ranking 6th overall in box office profits. Remember: the Academy has handed out their top honor to films like Gladiator and The Return of the King in just the past ten years. There's definitely room for high-concept, popcorn-friendly blockbusters at the Oscars.
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHTWhy It Might Win: Lisa Cholodenko's off-beat family dramedy has been finding favor here and there all year long. It already has a Golden Globe win for Best Comedy or Musical and both Annette Bening and Mark Ruffalo have acting nominations at the Oscars. Cholodenko's script is also in the running for Original Writing. I won't lie: this is the one movie nominated for Best Picture that I actively disliked, but obviously, I'm in the minority on this one. Voters could very well buy into the romantic tension at the film's core, while the lesbian themes ensure that the movie feels very contemporary and in line with current issues.
THE KING'S SPEECHWhy It Might Win: For so long, we all assumed The Social Network's Oscar victory was a foregone conclusion. Then, late in December, The King's Speech opened in theaters and all the predictions were thrown into chaos. After dominating at the BAFTAs (what? British people like British movies? Who knew?) and netting some key victories from the producing and directing guilds, The King's Speech cannot be ignored. It also leads the Oscars with twelve nominations, including Colin Firth's dominant Best Actor nod. Not unlike The Fighter, The King's Speech is a very traditional Best Picture film, centered around a historical event and featuring all kinds of fun period costuming and artistic touches. The King's Speech, however, separates itself from the pack through astonishing acting, unusually strong writing and an underrated directing effort from Tom Hooper. It will definitely be a strong player on Sunday night.
127 HOURSWhy It Might Win: Danny Boyle could not have made a movie less like Slumdog Millionaire than the brooding, focused 127 Hours. Instead of running through the streets of India, almost all of 127 Hours takes place in one location, as James Franco wrestles with an unyielding boulder that has trapped his arm. One of the most tense and emotionally riveting films nominated, 127 Hours takes a difficult premise for a movie and absolutely aces it. Strong editing and camera work help, but Franco and Boyle both deserve the most praise. The audience knows how this movie is going to end, but that doesn't make the events leading up to the climax any less compelling. Voters could end up being won over by this film's focus and overall commitment to the true events it was based on.
THE SOCIAL NETWORKWhy It Might Win: Well, it's been winning everything all year long. The King's Speech has been stealing a bit of its thunder, but The Social Network still has to be considered the favorite. Contemporary issues (Facebook) are combined with uber-witty dialogue from Aaron Sorkin, edgy, taut directing from David Fincher and a star-making performance from Jesse Eisenberg as Facebook's manic creator, Mark Zuckerberg. The Social Network also happens to be the best reviewed film of the year, an honor usually reserved for foreign art-house films about existential despair. Whether the film truly reveals something about the American zeitgeist is debatable, but I don't think Academy voters are going to ponder it over too much. The popularity and acclaim for The Social Network have been snowballing since September and it's going to take a mighty effort to derail it now.
TOY STORY 3Why It Might Win: Ok, we all know that a kids' movie will never win Best Picture. However, Toy Story 3 presents a compelling case. For starters, it made more money than any other film this year. That's not uncommon for family-friendly movies, but there's no denying that Toy Story 3 resonated with more than just the under-15 set. In many ways, it's a movie that kids won't understand, aiming more for the nostalgic college kids who remember watching the first Toy Story movie so many years ago. The animation is up to Pixar's usual ridiculously high standards, while the story and script are far darker than your run-of-the-mill children's animation blockbuster. Hell, the last act of the film resembles Dante's Inferno, with the characters quite literally sinking into a fiery pit of doom. If there's ever been an animated movie that can hang with the heavy-hitters in the Best Picture category, this is it.
TRUE GRITWhy It Might Win: I almost feel bad for True Grit. With ten nominations, it ranks ahead of everything not named The King's Speech at this year's Oscars. However, it is favored to win exactly none of those awards. Getting completely shut out would be quite embarrassing, especially considering what a strong, effective film the Coen brothers managed to churn out. Built around three strong performances from Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon and young, show-stealing newcomer Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit isn't a movie that does anything new, but it does old things very well. Maybe voters will find that True Grit is more than the sum of its constituent parts and give it top honors despite the lack of support elsewhere.
WINTER'S BONEWhy It Might Win: As this year's Grammy Awards proved, anything can happen. Winter's Bone should pay careful attention, because more than any other movie nominated, it stands to be rewarded if the Academy pulls some Arcade-Fire-type rabbit out of its proverbial hat. A huge winner among critics and the independent film community, Winter's Bone is a powerfully bleak and focused film, a crime drama worthy of GoodFellas but in miniature. The entire story is trapped within the grey, snowy confines of the Ozark mountains, ravaged by meth and complex family ties. Add in Jennifer Lawrence's fantastic portrayal of a young girl in way over her head and you've got a true dark horse candidate. If the Academy wants to placate the critics, the film kids and the indie film whiners all in one fell swoop, giving Winter's Bone the Best Picture award would just about do the trick.
Alright, those are the nominees. I've got the envelope here... the results are in and they say:
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who Should Win: Toy Story 3
Let's not kid ourselves. There are only two movies that have a realistic chance of winning: The Social Network and The King's Speech. However, even with all the acclaim being dumped on The King's Speech in the past month, I'm putting all my money on The Social Network. It hits all the right buttons for American voters and should easily clean up on Sunday night. Of course, my favorite movie of the year was Toy Story 3, so I'd love to see it swoop out of nowhere and land a mighty blow for animated films everywhere. We all know that won't happen, though. The Social Network will rule the day, deserving or not.
No comments:
Post a Comment