Simon's Oscar Preview: Acting

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Nominees: Javier Bardem - Biutiful (have not seen), Jeff Bridges - True Grit, Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network, Colin Firth - The King's Speech, James Franco - 127 Hours

Who Will Win: Colin Firth
Who Should Win: Colin Firth

Nothing radical here. Colin Firth has been winning every relevant acting award around and deservedly so. His performance in The King's Speech is strong, memorable and profoundly moving. He's the clear standout in what turned out to be a slightly thin year for the Best Actor category. Interestingly, this is the second year in a row that both Bridges and Firth are nominated. This time, however, the tables will turn and Firth will get his recognition. Lost in all this is Franco, whose powerful portrayal of Aron Ralston in 127 Hours should not be ignored.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Nominees: Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right, Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole, Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone, Natalie Portman - Black Swan, Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Who Will Win: Natalie Portman
Who Should Win: Natalie Portman

Again, they might as well just hand this one out now. Everyone knows that Portman is going to win here and few are arguing in favor of anyone else. This is a much stronger field than Best Actor, featuring great performances by Lawrence and Williams particularly, but Black Swan's Nina Sayers is probably the most memorable film character of the year. Bening has a few supporters, but I found her role in The Kids Are All Right handicapped by an awkward and often underdeveloped script. As for Kidman... well, Rabbit Hole is far from her best work, but she's Nicole Kidman, so we have to talk about her anyway. Don't let anybody fool you: Natalie's winning here.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Nominees: Christian Bale - The Fighter, John Hawkes - Winter's Bone, Jeremy Renner - The Town, Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right, Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

Who Will Win: Christian Bale
Who Should Win: Christian Bale

This will be the closest and most unpredictable of the acting awards. Bale's bug-eyed, manic turn as fallen boxer Dicky Eklund certainly deserves the award and he already has the Golden Globe as proof, but Geoffrey Rush presents a very compelling case. Although you could argue that his role should be considered a lead role, here he is with the supporting guys and many people suspect that he'll win. I'm not as convinced and I think The King's Speech is going to walk away with far fewer awards than people expect. Hawkes, Renner and Ruffalo all turned in quality performances, but anyone who thinks this is anything other than a two-horse race is crazy.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Nominees: Amy Adams - The Fighter, Helena Bonham Carter -The King's Speech, Melissa Leo - The Fighter, Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit, Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

Who Will Win: Melissa Leo
Who Should Win: Melissa Leo

Basically the same as the Supporting Actors. Leo's domineering matriarch plays a commanding role in The Fighter and netted her the recognition at the Globes. Meanwhile, The King's Speech is sneaking up again, this time in the form of Helena Bonham Carter's charming portrayal of the future Queen Elizabeth. I'm predicting Leo to carry this category at the Oscars, but it certainly isn't set in stone. If Best Picture goes as planned and falls to The Social Network, the Academy may ensure that The King's Speech, their most nominated film, has plenty of other scraps to snap up. For the record, Hailee Steinfeld does not belong in this category: she had a lead role and that cannot be debated.