Bonus Oscar Post!

After spending this past week griping about how terrible this year's Academy Award nominations are, I felt it was appropriate to showcase how I, Simon V. Irving, would have arranged the major categories. The following list presumes that the Academy's tastes perfectly mirrored my own. Thus, this list is as flawed as any other, but it's personal. This should show you the movies, performances and scripts that resonated with me in 2011.

(Disclaimer: It should be noted that, while this list draws from the 56 films I saw from 2011, there are some important gaps. A handful of films, namely Shame, Young Adult, We Need to Talk About Kevin and Meek's Cutoff, probably deserve consideration. Especially in the case of Shame, I worry that Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan turned in nominate-able performances that I simply haven't seen yet. If that's the case, Oldman would be bumped from Best Actor and Anaya from Supporting Actress. Have any other suggestions? Suggest away!)

Winners are bolded.

BEST PICTURE

• A Separation
• The Artist
• Attack the Block
• Drive
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Martha Marcy May Marlene
• Rango
• Take Shelter
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• The Tree of Life

DIRECTION

• Tomas Alfredson - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Asghar Farhadi - A Separation
• Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
• Terrence Malik - The Tree of Life
• Nicolas Winding Refn - Drive

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Jean Dujardin as “George Valentin” - The Artist
• Ryan Gosling as “The Driver” - Drive
• Peyman Moadi as “Nader” - A Separation
• Gary Oldman as “George Smiley” - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Michael Shannon as “Curtis LaForche” - Take Shelter

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

• Viola Davis as “Aibileen Clark” - The Help
• Leila Hatami as “Simin” - A Separation
• Rooney Mara as “Lisbeth Salander” - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Elizabeth Olsen as “Martha” - Martha Marcy May Marlene
• Michelle Williams as “Marilyn Monroe” - My Week with Marilyn

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Kenneth Branagh as “Sir Laurence Olivier” - My Week with Marilyn
• Albert Brooks as “Bernie Rose” - Drive
• Bryan Cranston as “Shannon” - Drive
• Brad Pitt as “Mr. O’Brian” - The Tree of Life
• Andy Serkis as “Ceasar” - Rise of the Planet of the Apes

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Elena Anaya as “Vera Cruz” - The Skin I Live In
• Berenice Bejo as “Peppy Miller” - The Artist
• Jessica Chastain as “Celia Foote” - The Help
• Jessica Chastain as “Samantha LaForche” - Take Shelter
• Octavia Spencer as “Minnie Jackson” - The Help

SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL)

• Joe Cornish - Attack the Block 
• Asghar Farhadi - A Separation
• Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
• John Logan - Rango 
• Jeff Nichols - Take Shelter 

SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED)

• Pedro Almodovar - The Skin I Live In, from Tarantula by Thierry Jonquet
• Hossein Amini - Drive, from Drive by James Sallis
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, from Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy by John le Carre
• Steven Zaillian - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, from The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo by Stieg Larsson
• Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin - Moneyball, from Moneyball by Michael Lewis

Simon's Oscar Preview 2012: Best Picture

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

...and we've reached the end of our 2012 Oscar Commentary. Thanks for stopping by, folks, see you next year--wait, what? Oh you want me to actually talk about the Best Picture nominees? Psh, fine. Here you go.

THE ARTIST
Why It Might Win: Let's see how gently I can put this. The Artist, is, ahem, strongly favored to win Best Picture on Sunday night. It won at the Golden Globes. It won at the Producers' Guild. It won at the Directors' Guild.  It didn't win at the Screenwriters' Guild, but that's because it was foreign and ineligible. It won at the BAFTAs. In fact, the only conspicuous feather missing from its cap of awards was from the SAG Awards. Let's face it, what do actors know about anything, right? So, yeah, The Artist has some sizable momentum behind it. It's also an excellent movie, which fluffs up the myth of Hollywood and has an adorable dog. The Academy shouldn't be able to put up much of a fight.

THE DESCENDANTS
Why It Might Win: Speaking of award shows, here we have the other movie that won at the Globes and the Screenwriters' Guild. It does have a bit of Hollywood pedigree behind, featuring a Certified Movie Star (Clooney) and helmed by Alexander Payne, who people in Hollywood keeping treating like some kind of unrecognized genius. It's big, it's sappy, it's got kids, plus some death on the side. It certainly feels like a classic Best Picture nominee. Thankfully, we've seen the Academy get smarter over the past decade and movies like The Descendants seem to be falling out of favor. It will take a lot of voters clinging to the past to lift this movie over The Artist.

EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE
Why It Might Win: Well, the voters had one collective aneurism when they voted this into the category, so it's conceivable that it could happen again and they all blindly give it Hollywood's top honor. It should be pointed out, though, that Loud has exactly two nominations: this one and Best Supporting Actor for Max von Sydow. It has been eons since a Best Picture winner wasn't up for Director, Actor/Actress or Screenplay. The trends (and basic, common sense) do not bode well for this grating tale of national tragedy and autism.

THE HELP
Why It Might Win: The SAG Awards breathed a sparkle of life into The Help when they handed it their highest award, for Best Acting Ensemble. For a brief moment, it looked as if The Artist might have a shadow of a challenger. However, when you stop and think about it, that SAG win makes sense. The Help does have excellent acting. What it doesn't have is strong directing or writing, which the Academy evidently noted when they chose not to nominate it for those categories. Perhaps the sheer strength of the performances will generate enough good will to elevate it to the top of the heap. It seems unlike, but it's not entirely out of the question.

HUGO
Why It Might Win: Hugo is proof that not all Academy Award nominations are equal. It leads the whole pack this year with eleven nominations. Yet, too many of those are found in the technical and art awards, which traditionally have little bearing over Best Picture decisions. Martin Scorsese is up for Director and it nabbed an unfortunate Adapted Screenplay award, but no acting nominations to speak of is never a good sign. Of course, the movie looks beautiful and it really does deserve those Pretty Things Are Pretty Awards that air in the first hour of the show. Best Picture, though? Not so much. Unless the film history angle wins over a whole bunch of very stupid voters, Hugo will have to cry into its Art Direction award.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Why It Might Win: Woody Allen! He's a guy who makes movies! Been making them for some time, in fact! Some of them were even considered good! Hollywood loves old guys who make some good movies! This is the logic necessary to convince yourself that Midnight in Paris has a chance. It may have been Allen's best movie is years... but that's really not the compliment it could be. This is no Annie Hall. This is a light-hearted piece of fluff that will probably walk away with a Screenplay award and nothing else. As with so many other films in this category, a lack of acting nominations really speaks volumes about what's going on. Allen's Hollywood insider status can only get him so far. It won't get him to Best Picture this year.

MONEYBALL
Why It Might Win: Moneyball feels like a poor man's The Social Network to me. Both are tales about intellectual pioneers and iconoclasts who effect massive change in their respective worlds. Both are written by Aaron Sorkin, who is firmly in love-him-or-hate-him territory. Both will never win Best Picture. I mean, being someone who obsess over sabermetrics every April through October, I'd love to see a movie about on-base-percentage, WAR, VORP, BABIP and so on succeed. Moneyball is not that movie, unfortunately. It's a plucky underdog sports movie, not that far removed from those plucky underdog sports movies you liked all those years ago. Plucky underdog sports movies don't have a great track record at the Oscars. Moneyball will do nothing to change that.

THE TREE OF LIFE
Why It Might Win: Well, if movie critics voted on these awards, this would be a near slam-dunk win. Terrence Malik's epic about life itself has certainly raked in some high praise from the artsy end of movie viewers. There's a chance that the Academy could finally get on that train and go all-in on this massive, dense, inscrutable film. But, the viewership of the award ceremony would crumble and die. People would be sitting on their couches, bitching about how those ivory tower intellectuals said that terrible movie with dinosaurs was better than that uplifting story about the Civil Rights movement (note: The Help is NOT about the Civil Rights movement). The Academy could give The Tree of Life the Best Picture award. They would just be running the risk of never giving out a Best Picture award ever again.

WAR HORSE
Why It Might Win: Spielberg! He's a guy a guy who makes movies! See where I'm going here? So many of the Best Picture nominees this year feel so obligatory, making it hard to keep the cynicism at bay. In all fairness, War Horse is much better than it could have been. It's big and epic and full of explosions, grime and haunted looks on the faces of innocent young men. Sure, fine, that's great. There's just nothing special enough about it. I feel like a broken record, but observe: no director nomination. No acting nominations. No writing nomination. War Horse is hanging out with Hugo in the ignored-awards ghetto. This is the movie that will wrestle Best Picture away from the other eight nominees? I don't think so.

So, there are all nine. Are we done yet? No, you want me to predict winners too? If you insist...

Who Will Win: The Artist
Who Should Win: The Artist

As you must have noticed above, the "Why It Might Win" sections should have been renamed "Why It Might Beat The Artist." There's just no getting around the fact that the awards this year might as well not even be aired. Best Picture was locked up months ago, as were most of the other categories. There is a chance for upsets in Screenwriting, Lead Actress and Documentary, but everything else seems set in stone. The Academy Award nominations this year were far too safe and did little to recognize even remotely challenging films. We're only two years removed from The Hurt Locker taking down the most profitable film of all time. There is hope to be had. Unfortunately, the Oscars turned back into the Oscars this year, forcing us to watch them try to justify Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close being considered a finalist for Best Movie of 2011. Thankfully, The Artist is a fairly great movie and I'll be happy enough to see it win. There are just so many other great films from this past year that should have been discussed. The Academy let us all down this year. It's only fitting that a silent movie will win everything.

Simon's Oscar Preview 2012: Acting

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Nominees: Demian Bichir - A Better Life, George Clooney - The Descendants, Jean Dujardin - The Artist, Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Brad Pitt - Moneyball

Who Will Win: Jean Dujardin
Who Should Win: Jean Dujardin

No competition here at all. With Clooney and Pitt for all intents and purposes playing themselves, they're unlike to gain much traction with voters. Oldman's performance, while strong, is too minimal to attract much attention, while poor Demian Bichir gets to enjoy a token nomination that, while more-or-less deserved, will lead him nowhere near the big stage. Not only is Dujardin the winner by process of elimination, he also turned in a truly wonderful performance in The Artist. The fact that he conveyed George Valentin's depth and emotional journey without words only drives the point home more. Congrats, Jean, you did it. Hooray.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs, Viola Davis - The Help, Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady, Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

Who Will Win: Viola Davis
Who Should Win: Viola Davis

Best Actress is certainly an odd field this year. We have three very strong performances (Davis, Mara and Williams) jammed next two appalling ones (Close and the obligatory Meryl Streep). Davis won at the SAG Awards, but Streep has a few other awards under her belt for her agonizing portrayal of Margaret Thatcher, so who knows what madness the Academy will pull. If that whole "legacy" thing looms its ugly head and people decide too many years have passed since Meryl actually won something, I'll be more than a little upset. As for the good performances, picking a favorite is tough for me. The Help is certainly my least favorite of the three movies, but Viola Davis almost transcends the crowd-pleasing (and quite racist) premise of the film. Mara is intense as hell and Williams turns in some fantastic mimicry, but I think Davis' total acting package is the strongest of the lot.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill - Moneyball, Nick Nolte - Warrior, Christopher Plummer - Beginners, Max von Sydow - Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer
Who Should Win: Kenneth Branagh

Plummer's victory here is about as sure as it can be. Put simply, he's won everything. Everything. All the other award shows have given him Supporting Actor honors. So, there's that. I found his performance in Beginners to be bland, boring and forgettable, but apparently, old guys kissing men win Oscars. Are we still at a point in culture where a straight actor playing a gay character is considered an acting challenge? I dearly hope not. Lost in the also-rans is Kenneth Branagh, who did some fantastic work playing Sir Laurence Olivier in My Week with Marilyn. Simultaneously mocking Olivier and himself, his pompous, judgmental character breathes some life into an otherwise routine biopic. Let the record also show that Jonah Hill is now an Academy-Award-nominated actor. I weep for the future.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Berenice Bejo - The Artist, Jessica Chastain - The Help, Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids, Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs, Octavia Spencer - The Help

Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer
Who Should Win: Octavia Spencer

Seriously, there's just no challenge in the acting awards this year. Spencer, like Plummer, has a mountain of acclaim behind her, although in her case, it's for good reason. The acting in The Help is generally fantastic and Spencer deserves this one. 2011 was a weak year for Supporting Actresses by my count, so even once you factor in performances that weren't nominated, I think Spencer has a claim to the top spot. I would have liked to see Chastain nominated for some of her other roles, but when you release seven films in a year, it's nice to see at least one of them snag you an Oscar nomination. As for Melissa McCarthy... let's just not talk about that, okay? Okay.

Simon's Oscar Preview 2012: Writing & Directing

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Nominees: The Artist, Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Midnight in Paris, A Separation

Who Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Who Should Win: A Separation

Woody Allen has certainly built up momentum this year, winning top writing honors at the Golden Globes and at the Screenwriters' Guild Awards. The only outlier has been the BAFTAs, which awarded their Original Screenplay prize to The Artist. It should be noted that the Screenwriters' Guild could not nominate The Artist, since it was a French script and the Guild is an American concern. The Artist could very well win here, but my money is sticking with Allen. The Academy is going to have to spread the wealth around a bit, right? There is no doubt in my mind that A Separation is the best-written movie in this entire category (and possibly of the whole year), but it won't win. The nomination alone is a pleasant surprise, though.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Nominees: The Descendants, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Who Will Win: The Descendants
Who Should Win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

The Descendants was the other Screenwriters' Guild winner, which bodes well for its chances at the Oscars. Remember that there's significant overlap in the voting groups for all these awards, so don't expect their opinions to change between the Guild Awards and the Academy Awards. That said, the script for The Descendants is trite and obnoxious, so something a bit more snappy (say, Moneyball) could make a late run. Besides, the Academy loves Sorkin. Ugh. In this thin field, Tinker Tailor is my clear favorite, since it adapted a challenging, glacially slow spy drama into, well... a challenging, glacially slow spy drama. That's not a bad thing, if you ask me. It was a loyal, nuanced adaptation and it deserves the recognition over the rest of this feel-good, audience-pleasing crap.

DIRECTING

Nominees: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist, Alexander Payne - The Descendants, Martin Scorsese - Hugo, Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris, Terrence Malik - The Tree of Life

Who Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius
Who Should Win: Terrence Malik

I get a bit neurotic about the Best Director award. There's a common belief that the best overall film has the best director, but that often doesn't seem to be the case. A couple years ago, I was a big supporter of The Hurt Locker winning Best Picture... but I maintained that James Cameron deserved Best Director for Avatar. When it comes to directors, ambition and the ability to execute their vision win me over more than a collection of good performances or a charming story. Hazanavicius, who has already locked this award up for all intents and purposes, certainly fits that description. Guys, he made a goddamn black-and-white silent movie. Ambition. Vision. Yes. However, Malik's dissertation on life, religion and just about everything else blows The Artist out of the water from a directing standpoint. Malik won't win and The Tree of Life is certainly frustrating in its own way. I'll just always want to reward the risk takers over those directors who maintain the status quo. 

Simon's Oscar Preview 2012: Special Feature Films

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

Nominees: Hell and Back Again, If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Pina, Undefeated (not seen)

Who Will Win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Who Should Win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Those predictions above may look simple, but this is actually one of the categories that could go several ways. Not unlike last year, we find an artistic, aesthetically intriguing film (Pina) battling it out with a more traditional, but strongly executed social issue doc. The Academy swung toward the social issues last year with Inside Job and I believe this year will be the same. The Paradise Lost series played a significant role in saving the lives of three prisoners, who were almost certainly wrongfully accused. Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky devoted almost two decades of their lives to this project and I'm all for seeing them get some damn recognition for it. Of course, Pina is quite strong in its own right and the Academy could elect to spread the wealth around. Or, one of the other three could win. It's just so hard to argue with a film that saved lives...

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees: Bullhead, Footnote (not seen), In Darkness (not seen), Monsieur Lazhar (not seen), A Separation

Who Will Win: A Separation
Who Should Win: A Separation

The Foreign Film nominees were not that easy to track down this year, making this the category I have the least first-hand experience with out of all twenty-four. However, I could not be more sure that A Separation will run away with this one. The stunning Iranian drama has won heaps of awards leading up to this point, it's got an Original Screenplay nomination from the foreign-film-phobic Academy and is also simply one of the year's best films. Bullhead was strong, but nothing special. I'm sure the other three have their charms as well. However, if anything besides A Separation wins on Sunday, I'll be throwing things at my TV screen.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango

Who Will Win: Rango
Who Should Win: Rango

Can we all just take a moment and observe that The Adventures of Tintin was not nominated here? It's a decision that simply makes no sense. Were Tintin to be present in this category, it would effortlessly win the top honor. However, in its absence, it appears that one of my favorite films from 2011 has a chance to swoop in. Gore Verbinski's warped, surreal children's movie was a wonderful surprise,  infusing modern kid's cinema with some needed edge, danger and all-out weirdness. There may be some snooty, high-brow-loving voters who will make a push for Chico & Rita, a foreign nominee about Cuban jazz, but I'm rooting for the Western about lizards. Obviously.

Simon's Oscar Preview 2012: Short Films

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Nominees: Pentecost, Raju, The Shore, Time Freak, Tuba Atlantic

Who Will Win: The Shore
Who Should Win: Tuba Atlantic

To be honest, none of this year's live action shorts really grabbed me. As a group, they seemed undercooked, poorly developed and clumsy. The Shore would appear to be the front runner, since it features recognizable actors (Ciaran Hinds) and functions as a kind of cutesy nostalgic dramedy. My hypothetical vote would have to go to Tuba Atlantic, which makes up for its slightly twee premise with some nice, dark touches. None of the nominees are overtly bad, but without a particular standout, this category is really anyone's guess.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

Nominees: Dimanche/Sunday, The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore, La Luna, A Morning Stroll, Wild Life

Who Will Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Who Should Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Every year, the animated shorts are one of my favorite groups of nominees to dig into. If you don't already, be sure to attend the organized screenings that happen all over the country. It's hard to find a more charming evening than one spent with twelve minute animated movies. As for this year's crop, we've got some good (Books, La Luna) mixed in with some bad/boring (Dimanche/Sunday) and weird (A Morning Stroll). We even have Wild Life represented the less-than-comedic genres. Ultimately, I have to believe that the overwhelming excellence and joy behind Fantastic Flying Books will win the award. I encourage everyone to track it down and see it, simply for the happy, fluttering feeling you're left with when the film is over. It's possible that dark horse candidate A Morning Stroll could vulture a win if the voters are feeling a bit risky. That said, Books effortlessly combines beautiful animation with a wonderful, simple story. It deserves this award in my book (see what I did there?).

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

Nominees: The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement, God is the Bigger Elvis (not seen), Incident in New Baghdad, Saving Face, The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Who Will Win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Who Should Win: Saving Face

As with the live action shorts, this year's group of short doc nominees leave a fair bit to be desired. They all have significant issues, either in passing off personal stories as universal experiences or not delving deep enough into the subject at hand. The established frontrunner, The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom, certainly packs a punch with it's opening footage, but promptly losses steam as the filmmakers try to shoehorn an awkward metaphor into their story. As for Saving Face, the subject matter (Pakistani women who are the victims of acid attacks) is astonishing and deeply moving, making it my favorite of sorts. However, it lacks in depth, making its forty minute running time very apparent. Perhaps the unseen God is the Bigger Elvis is the gem of this bunch and the licensing deals have kept us simple bloggers from witnessing its genius. We'll find out soon enough, I suppose. 

Simon's Oscar Preview 2012: Technical Achievements

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

FILM EDITING

Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball

Who Will Win: The Artist
Who Should Win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

With the American Cinema Editors giving out their Eddie Awards last night, the Editing category has become fairly clear cut. Mirroring the Golden Globes, The Descendants won for drama, while The Artist won for comedy/musical. As I've mentioned many times in the past, there is a trend of Best Editing and Best Picture going to the same movie, meaning The Artist has to be the favorite here. As for my Dragon Tattoo pick, some might question how well edited a two-and-half-hour movie really can be. I suggest those skeptics pay a closer attention to every scene in the film where a character drives, walks or moves from one location to another. A poorly edited movie would drag those pensive moments of travel out until they were unbearable. Dragon Tattoo wastes no time, giving you one establishing car shot before throwing its next barrage of abuse at you. Impressive stuff, I'd say.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Who Will Win: The Tree of Life
Who Should Win: The Tree of Life

All five nominees bring some impressive work to the table here, but five-time Oscar nominee Emmanuel Lubezki should finally win his long-deserved award. The Tree of Life is nothing short of gorgeous and the Cinematography Guild Awards have already given it their blessing. Lubezki's expansive vision and technical skill are excellent pairings with Terrence Malik's methodical brand of storytelling and ambition. This is likely the only award Tree will win on Sunday, but it will certainly be deserved.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Hugo, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Who Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Who Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

It's nice to see a category this year that isn't easy to predict. The VES Awards were split between Hugo and Apes, making this seem like a battle between understated, subtle cinema magic and highly expressive monkeys. My vote is currently with the apes and I feel the Academy will agree with me. There was some talk about Andy Serkis getting a Supporting Actor nom for his excellent, motion-captured performance as the ape Caesar, but the character's charisma comes from the outstanding effects work as much as it does from Serkis' physical acting skills. Sorry, fighting robots. You'll have to wait yet another year to make it onto the Oscar stage.

SOUND EDITING

Nominees: Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse

Who Will Win: Hugo
Who Should Win: Hugo

Not much drama here. All those ticking clocks and screeching prosthetic legs in Hugo seem to have locked this one up. My beloved Drive received its only nomination here and I'd love to see in win just out of spite towards the whole Academy. That said, I can't say that Hugo doesn't deserve this award. Yes, the film is a technical achievement. It should win these technical awards. As long as it doesn't win Screenplay, I'm fine.

SOUND MIXING

Nominees: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse

Who Will Win: Hugo
Who Should Win: Hugo

Similar award, similar nominees, similar result. I wish I could have been present at the meeting where the Academy decided that Moneyball's sound mixing was this exemplary, but I just have to assume that someone, somewhere knows what they're doing. Maybe the dry crack of the bat on the baseball will strike a chord with voters. Maybe that grating noise you hear every time a robot turns into a car in the Transformers movies has finally brainwashed the Academy. Any of these movies could win. Technically. The chance of victory for each one is above zero percent. Yet, Hugo will win. Almost certainly.   

Simon's Oscar Preview 2012: Music

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Nominees: The Adventures of Tintin, The Artist, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse

Who Will Win: The Artist
Who Should Win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Ludovic Bource's score is the favorite here and not without reason. Smartly referencing the music of many old Hollywood classics, the score helps The Artist sound the part of a silent movie. Ironic, right? However, Bource's score has not been without controversy, since it borrows a recognizable theme from Hitchcock's Vertigo. Whether this splits the voters, who have historically been wary of works that are not deemed purely original, is yet to be seen. As for myself, I adore Alberto Iglesias' work on Tinker Tailor, with the weary jazz horns and funereal pacing matching the tone and theme of the film perfectly. Seeing Iglesias win would be a wonderful surprise on Sunday.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Nominees: "Man or Muppet" - The Muppets, "Real in Rio" - Rio

Who Will Win: "Man or Muppet"
Who Should Win: "Man or Muppet"

Yup, only two nominees. Perplexing indeed, considering the number of other original songs floating out there in recent movies. Hell, the Golden Globes found five whole nominees, none of which are included here. Whatever. Either way, Oscar night should be Muppet-tastic, with Bret McKenzie of Flight of the Conchords fame earning a little golden statuette. Neither song here is particularly wonderful, but at least "Man or Muppet" is fun. "Real in Rio" is about as forgettable as they come. Outside of the nominees, I would have loved to see Ben Nichols' "Shelter" from Take Shelter get some recognition here. You'd think emotional, twangy ballads would play well with the voters. I'll never understand those silly Academy folks.

Simon's Oscar Preview 2012: Art & Design

The Academy Awards air this Sunday and, for the second year in a row, I'm letting the movies take over my blog for a week. I'll be running through every award category, offering up predictions and commentary. Be sure to watch the show on Sunday night and see how many of my educated guesses hit their marks.

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

ART DIRECTION

Nominees: The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, War Horse

Who Will Win: Hugo
Who Should Win: Hugo

Within its first two minutes, Hugo more than presents its very compelling case for this award. Swooping in on a idealized vision of Paris, the camera zooms through a train station, filled with bustling travelers, merchants, orphans, animals and so forth. The art team on Hugo did a fantastic job, constructing a magical world for the story to unfold within. From the intricate clockworks to the quaint little toy stores, few details are left ignored. None of the other candidates should be able to triumph here.

COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Anonymous, The Artist, Hugo, Jane Eyre, W.E. (not seen)

Who Will Win: Hugo
Who Should Win: Hugo

Again, not a terribly difficult choice. The ruffles and fluff of Anonymous border on ridiculous, while Jane Eyre and W.E. languish in Generic Period Costume purgatory.  That leaves the crisp suits and flapper dresses of The Artist battling against the imaginative flourishes in Hugo. Ultimately, I feel the imagination and charm of Hugo should prove victorious. Sacha Baron Cohen's sharp inspector uniform alone deserves some acknowledgement. Hugo may be lacking a bit as an overall film, but no one can say the art department didn't uphold their end of the bargain.

MAKEUP
Nominees: Albert Nobbs, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Iron Lady

Who Will Win: The Iron Lady
Who Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Without any single nominee that exists only to showcase makeup (ahem, last year's The Wolfman), this seems like a bit a crap shoot. The general consensus is that The Iron Lady will take home the award after plastering Meryl Streep with wrinkles, though Albert Nobbs could easily swoop in and nab the top honors. Personally, my vote will go to Harry Potter, simply because they're unlikely to win anything else and making Daniel Radcliffe that grimy for a movie that long takes some dedication.

Best Music of 2011, Pt. 2: Albums #5-1

#5
Let England Shake
PJ Harvey

The autoharp is not an instrument one associates with the ravages of war and the modern age. Yet, in the hands of Polly Jean Harvey, its distinctive, droning strum forms the core of her most compelling album in virtually a decade. Veering away from her usual onslaught of personal confession and squirm-educing intensity, Harvey elects to focus on her home country and its place in the greater international community. Let England Shake is profoundly visceral, both musically and lyrically, with blood, bones and gutter slime oozing out of each song. This is not a portrait of the Kinks' village green or Britpop's cool Britannia. Polly Jean's England is proud but filled with regret, exhaustion and horror. Hearing such a vision come from Harvey's evocative, strained voice only cements Let England Shake as one of the most fascinating and rewarding releases of the year.

Listen to: "The Words that Maketh Murder", "In the Dark Places", "Bitter Branches"

#4
The King of Limbs
Radiohead

Let's not waste time: Radiohead are my favorite band. This has been true for close to eight years, without exception. Part of me wants to catapult The King of Limbs to the very top of this list, simply on principle. However, as brilliant as it is, this is not the album I enjoyed the most this year. Let's not take that as mark against Radiohead, however, and more as a point in favor of the three artists coming next. There's no question that The King of Limbs challenged the Radiohead fan base, but nothing the band does should really surprise us anymore. Perhaps we all wanted In Rainbows, Part 2. That's too bad. Instead we got a briskly paced, absurdly dense exploration of rhythm and song form, fueled by two drum kits and nimble, dubby bass work. Thom Yorke's voice is as majestic as ever, while his lyrics are still wonderfully opaque. In The King of Limbs, I hear a band retreating once again from the public eye and releasing the music they want to play. This kind of process always has and always will create disappointed fans, but I certainly can't count myself among their ranks. The King of Limbs is original, innovative, haunting and emotional. In short, all the things I look for from a good Radiohead album. Well played, gentlemen.

Listen to: "Bloom", "Lotus Flower", "Codex"

#3
House of Balloons
The Weeknd

Upon first hearing House of Balloons, I filed it away, dismissing it as an interesting-but-disposable piece of alternative R&B. It wasn't until I started re-visiting the year's most acclaimed releases that I realized what a grievous mistake I'd made. In short, House of Balloons is the kind of album that seems tailor-made for my musical sensibilities. Icy, emotional distance? Check. Lapses into intensity and aggression? Yup. Subject matter that reveals the complications of modern world? Well, maybe not in the same way as Radiohead, but it's all still there. Abel Tesfaye (aka the Weeknd) has shown us a terrifying vision of the rap/R&B party taken to one extreme, logical confusion. The drinks, the drugs, the parties and the naked women are still there, but the fun has been sucked out of the whole situation. This is one dark album, where the sex feels predatory and emotionless, while the drugs give just enough energy to keep going but not enough to leave. Set to minimal, crisp keyboards and dry loops, House of Balloons is the ultimate anti-party album, a stark photo negative of contemporary music.

Listen to: "House of Balloons/Glass Table Girls", "Wicked Games", "Coming Down"

#2
Strange Mercy
St. Vincent

My experience of music in 2011 was defined by voices. From Thom Yorke's passionate wailing to Justin Vernon's distorted croon, the tone and timbre of vocals strongly influenced my listening habits. Three in particular stood out, though. Two of those you'll read about next, but the third was St. Vincent's Annie Clark, indie-rock's best angst-and-guitar-fueled-dynamo-disguised-as-waifishly-adorable-young-woman. With the release of Strange Mercy, her third album, Clark has finally found significant critical success and with good reason. Virtually nothing I heard this year can match the emotional honesty and nuance she displays over these eleven songs. Her masterful control over her voice lets each song unfold as an emotional odyssey, ebbing and flowing from regret, to anger, to sadness, to smirking joy and even full-blown celebration. Oh, and she also tears her guitar apart, in a way utterly unlike her traditional (read: male) contemporaries. This is violent, artsy, beautiful music, far removed from anything else you'll hear this year. Annie Clark, marry me.

Listen to: "Chloe in the Afternoon", "Surgeon", "Strange Mercy"

#1
Smother
Wild Beasts

In calling Smother my favorite album of the year, I'm being more honest with myself than I ever have been with these Best Of lists. As much as I'd like to deny it, I'm prone to picking albums I feel are undeniable "important" over albums I truly listened to non-stop, all year long out pure enjoyment. That stops now. I do not think that Smother is the greatest album released in 2011. I can even pick out a few of its major flaws. However, it is, without question, the album I enjoyed (and continue to enjoy) the most from this past year. Why, you ask? Put simply, it's one of the most romantic things I've heard in recent memory. "But wait, Simon," you say, "didn't you just say you liked emotionally distant, icy, pretentious music earlier?" Well, yes, of course I love that kind of stuff. No argument. But I also love music that confronts relationships, romance and yes, "love" (in its many forms) from unusual angles and Smother does just that. We're talking about a truly sexy indie rock album, something of the rarest order. These ten songs are immersed in the joy, thrill, danger and all-around wonderfulness of attraction. Not the cozy, hand-holdy type. The type where lyrics like "I would lie anywhere with you, any old bed of nails would do" are sung with a knowing wink. Wild Beasts are graced with two vocally stunning singers in Hayden Thorpe and Tom Fleming, with Smother finally giving them a chance to play off each other rather than giving them separate songs. Their voices intertwine and flirt around each other, mimicking the subject matter in the lyrics. And the lyrics! Good god, the beautiful lyrics, which are totally in love with the sound and shape of words, rather than the most literal meaning. "I wait until you're woozy, I'll lie low until you're lame." Just say it out loud. Do it. Isn't that alliteration just wonderful?!

Ok. Deep breaths. Calm. Peace. This, more than anything else, is my rationale for Smother topping this list. It sure isn't for everyone, especially those without a particularly patience for male falsetto. But it's an album that reduces me to stammering enthusiasm and broken sentences. It's an album of fun, of seduction, of sex, of danger, of pain (both good and bad), of intimacy and trust. Of romance, in other words. While contemporary radio tries to capture these qualities in sappy ballads and lewd innuendos, this unassuming English band has crafted an album that effortless showcases them all with grace, wit and overwhelming charm. Smother has stolen, beaten and abused my heart. I couldn't be happier about it.

Listen to: "Lion's Share", "Bed of Nails", "Reach a Bit Further"

Best Music of 2011, Pt. 1: Albums #10-6

After much delay, I'm finally writing up my favorite albums of this past year. Once again, I've chosen to keep things a Top 10, to preserve the importance and weight of the albums that are featured. I listened to over 100 releases this year, so the following list represents my very favorite ten percent. Now, on to the list, before anything else distracts me from writing for another two months...

#10
Badlands
Dirty Beaches

Badlands was seemingly lost in the mad shuffle of year-end lists and critical praise-hurling this year, but perhaps that's appropriate. Over an agonizingly brisk twenty-six minutes, Alex Hungtai, the Canadian-Vietnamese musician behind the Dirty Beaches name, has crafted eight songs that feel like they're sinking through time. They twang and shuffle like 1950s rock n' roll, but they're obscured by hazy production, abrasive noise and vocal performances that sound like they were recorded through eighteen layers of gauze. Badlands sounds like an abandoned jukebox sitting in some dust-blown diner, playing forgotten old singles until they start to sound pretty damn ominous. Mid-70s art-rock heroes Suicide are an obvious reference point (just compare "Ghost Rider" to anything on the album), but there's something much more nostalgic and eerie about Hungtai's sonic experiments. They don't scare or thrill you directly. They just go 'round and 'round, twisting themselves into your mind until you feel like you've been hearing them for forty years.

Listen to: "Speedway King", "A Hundred Highways", "Black Nylon"

#9
Ravedeath, 1972
Tim Hecker

As I grappled with constructing a soundtrack for a play I directed this summer, a show about men who work white-collar jobs until their very souls freeze, few pieces of music felt as fitting as the work of Tim Hecker. Yet another experimental Canadian musician with a flair for the ominous, Ravedeath, 1972 fights hard to escape the "ambient" label Hecker's music is usually saddled with. These songs are too majestic and emotional to be treated so passively. There's an intensity to Ravedeath that drags your attention to the music, built around oscillating electronics and immense washes of distorted organ. It's a beautiful album, but beautiful in the way that a glacier is beautiful. Danger is lurking and the unprepared might just get frozen solid.

Listen to: "The Piano Drop", "In the Fog", "Analog Paralysis, 1978"

#8
Kaputt
Destroyer

Evidently, it was a good year for nostalgic Canadians, as Destroyer's Dan Bejar delivered one of the best albums of his career with Kaputt. Looking to the 1980s for inspiration is nothing new, but the slickly produced confines of adult contemporary radio is rarely a hip reference point. Yet, in Bejar's hands, horn sections and swathes of woozy synths are reborn as dynamic, cerebral, addictive pop. Fans drawn into Bejar's orbit through his work with the New Pornographers might not be as pleased, but Kaputt showcases Bejar's unique and immensely enjoyable talent. The lyrics are snappy and packing enough subtle wit to knock out a 1980s Steely Dan radio playlist, while the music captures a lovely balance of urban cool and mystery. In year rife with good, mellow music, Kaputt offers one of the strongest sedate joys.

Listen to: "Chinatown", "Savage Night at the Opera", "Downtown"

#7
The English Riviera
Metronomy

There's something just not right about Metronomy songs. Under the benevolent dictatorship of Joe Mount, the band has produced a lovely collection of guitar pop songs... but even a casual listen reveals the unsettling, unfinished chord progressions and flat, robotic vocal delivery. Some could call this music "soulless," but the disconnect between the "she-loves-me"-style lyrics and the music is ultimately quite compelling. The tension between the rhythm instruments is kept as taut as possible, with every snare hit and hi-hat tap falling with mechanical precision. There's a knowing upending of conventional music tropes going on here and the result is collection of pop songs that capture the unease and complications of relationships better than any "soulful" radio hit ever could.

Listen to: "Everything Goes My Way", "The Look," "The Bay"

#6
Bon Iver, Bon Iver
Bon Iver

I didn't want to like this album. I really didn't. As Justin Vernon's musical stock has risen to impossible heights following his debut album, I've been resistant to his brand of intensely earnest, emotional songwriting. Sure, there's something romantic about a guy retreating to a cabin in Wisconsin to write songs about his breakup, but c'mon. That's just a bit too cliche for me. So along comes his second album, recorded with a full backing band and the blessings of Kanye West. I tried to hate this album, I really did. But the truth is that I simply can't. The weary grace of Vernon's music is irresistible. The man commits to honesty with a vengeance, allowing us to hear every crack in his vulnerable voice and every subtle inflection in the instrumentation. There's enough of an innovative streak to keep things interesting, with vocal effects and keyboard fills warping the straightforward delivery and enhancing the mournful atmosphere. Even when the album starts sounding like Lionel Richie towards the end (I'm not kidding here), Vernon's earnestness sells it. That trait should be a weakness, but in these hands, it becomes one of the most powerful musical statements of the year. In my book, this album deserves all the praise it has received.

Listen to: "Holocene", "Wash.", "Calgary"