Simon's Oscar Preview 2013: Acting

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty, Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook, Emmanuelle Riva - Amour, Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild, Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain

This is the category that I feel is the hardest to predict. It's a varied and, for the most part, entirely deserving group of performances. Chastain won at the Critics' Choice Awards and at the Globes. Lawrence also won at the Globes, along with the SAG Awards. Riva won at the BAFTAs and is seen as a very real dark horse contender by many observers and insiders. I think any of them are reasonable bets, although I think Riva is the least likely of the three. I'm choosing to believe that the informal blacklisting of Zero Dark Thirty from the awards will really hurt Chastain here. Silver Linings Playbook is also unlikely to win anything else and Lawrence certainly gives an amazing performance. Your guess is as good as mine.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook, Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln, Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables, Joaquin Phoenix - The Master, Denzel Washington - Flight

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Much, much easier to predict. Not only has Day-Lewis won all the awards leading up to the Oscars, he also happens to be DANIEL FRICKIN' DAY-LEWIS! He's an unstoppable force of nature. Even if Lincoln isn't a slam-dunk great film, no one can argue that the central performance is anything less than superb. The man is just unreal. He'll win his third Best Actor award and no one should be complaining about it. After Sunday, he'll go back into hibernation for five years, before emerging from his chrysalis and stunning us all again with complete mastery of his craft.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Amy Adams - The Master, Sally Field - Lincoln, Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables, Helen Hunt - The Sessions, Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Who Should Win: Amy Adams

If anything, this category is even easier to predict than Best Actor. This is Hathaway's award, entirely and completely. She's won literally ever single major lead up award and the performance in question is quite remarkable. I will be sad to see Amy Adams get snubbed, though. The woman has been up for Supporting Actress four times now and her work in The Master is likely her best yet. It's a tricky role, that seems very hard to effectively portray and Adams totally nails it. Hathaway will win for essentially singing a song, albeit a tremendously powerful song. Let's just not pretend there aren't other deserving nominees here.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Alan Arkin - Argo, Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook, Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master, Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln, Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Not unlike Best Actress, I would not be surprised to be wrong here. De Niro, Hoffman, Jones and Waltz all have very real cases to be made, either based on performances, previous awards or overall Oscar politics. In my mind, the competition is boiling down to Waltz or Jones. Waltz won at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, while Jones has the SAG Awards in his corner. If Lincoln is looking at a Best Picture win, we might see Jones get swept up in that wave. For the time being, though, I'm guessing that Waltz will take home his second Oscar.