Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture
Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Who Will Win: Django Unchained
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
What an amazing year for original screenplays. Four of the five nominated films deserve the attention (sorry Flight), while The Master, Looper and The Cabin in the Woods lurk out of sight. Despite this wealth of excellence, Quentin Tarantino has gained near unstoppable momentum for the Django Unchained screenplay, wracking up awards at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice and BAFTA ceremonies. Only the Writers Guild broke ranks, rewarding the deeply deserving Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty. I don't expect the Academy to be as reasonable. Tarantino hasn't won at the Oscars since Pulp Fiction, so I'm sure some people feel he's overdue. Make no mistake, Django is an amazing script, but in a category this deep, several people are going to get snubbed and it saddens me that Boal will be one of them.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Who Will Win: Argo
Who Should Win: Lincoln
I'm very excited to watch this category on Sunday. If Argo is headed towards a Best Picture victory, it needs Chris Terrio to win for Adapted Screenplay. Since the creation of the supporting acting categories, only one film (1940's Rebecca) has won Best Picture without also winning an award for acting, directing or writing. Ben Affleck didn't get nominated for directing and Alan Arkin's chances in Supporting Actor look grim, so Terrio's screenplay is the best option. The Academy voters have watched every other major award ceremony pile the awards on Argo, so unless they want to go against the steam entirely, they have to do something to build up the hype as the night goes on. Terrio's win at the Writers Guild Awards seems huge here.
DIRECTING
Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg
Who Should Win: a bunch of people not nominated
What a mess. This is the category that might ruin all the work I'm doing to predict these darn awards. At this point, the snubs of Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow are old news. We have to assume that Spielberg will emerge victorious amidst such a directionless (har har) year, but honestly, something super weird could happen here. Ang Lee is probably the most likely sleeper, but Lincoln is the textbook definition of Oscar bait and Spielberg hasn't won since Saving Private Ryan. If I had to pick a personal favorite out of the nominees, I'd go with Haneke, just because he'd probably murder me in my sleep if I didn't. I'm still mad about Bigelow, though.
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