Simon's Oscar Preview 2013: Acting

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty, Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook, Emmanuelle Riva - Amour, Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild, Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain

This is the category that I feel is the hardest to predict. It's a varied and, for the most part, entirely deserving group of performances. Chastain won at the Critics' Choice Awards and at the Globes. Lawrence also won at the Globes, along with the SAG Awards. Riva won at the BAFTAs and is seen as a very real dark horse contender by many observers and insiders. I think any of them are reasonable bets, although I think Riva is the least likely of the three. I'm choosing to believe that the informal blacklisting of Zero Dark Thirty from the awards will really hurt Chastain here. Silver Linings Playbook is also unlikely to win anything else and Lawrence certainly gives an amazing performance. Your guess is as good as mine.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook, Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln, Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables, Joaquin Phoenix - The Master, Denzel Washington - Flight

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Much, much easier to predict. Not only has Day-Lewis won all the awards leading up to the Oscars, he also happens to be DANIEL FRICKIN' DAY-LEWIS! He's an unstoppable force of nature. Even if Lincoln isn't a slam-dunk great film, no one can argue that the central performance is anything less than superb. The man is just unreal. He'll win his third Best Actor award and no one should be complaining about it. After Sunday, he'll go back into hibernation for five years, before emerging from his chrysalis and stunning us all again with complete mastery of his craft.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Amy Adams - The Master, Sally Field - Lincoln, Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables, Helen Hunt - The Sessions, Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Who Should Win: Amy Adams

If anything, this category is even easier to predict than Best Actor. This is Hathaway's award, entirely and completely. She's won literally ever single major lead up award and the performance in question is quite remarkable. I will be sad to see Amy Adams get snubbed, though. The woman has been up for Supporting Actress four times now and her work in The Master is likely her best yet. It's a tricky role, that seems very hard to effectively portray and Adams totally nails it. Hathaway will win for essentially singing a song, albeit a tremendously powerful song. Let's just not pretend there aren't other deserving nominees here.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Alan Arkin - Argo, Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook, Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master, Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln, Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Not unlike Best Actress, I would not be surprised to be wrong here. De Niro, Hoffman, Jones and Waltz all have very real cases to be made, either based on performances, previous awards or overall Oscar politics. In my mind, the competition is boiling down to Waltz or Jones. Waltz won at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, while Jones has the SAG Awards in his corner. If Lincoln is looking at a Best Picture win, we might see Jones get swept up in that wave. For the time being, though, I'm guessing that Waltz will take home his second Oscar. 

Simon's Oscar Preview 2013: Writing & Directing

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Nominees: Amour, Django Unchained, Flight, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty

Who Will Win: Django Unchained
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

What an amazing year for original screenplays. Four of the five nominated films deserve the attention (sorry Flight), while The Master, Looper and The Cabin in the Woods lurk out of sight. Despite this wealth of excellence, Quentin Tarantino has gained near unstoppable momentum for the Django Unchained screenplay, wracking up awards at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice and BAFTA ceremonies. Only the Writers Guild broke ranks, rewarding the deeply deserving Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty. I don't expect the Academy to be as reasonable. Tarantino hasn't won at the Oscars since Pulp Fiction, so I'm sure some people feel he's overdue. Make no mistake, Django is an amazing script, but in a category this deep, several people are going to get snubbed and it saddens me that Boal will be one of them.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Nominees: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook

Who Will Win: Argo
Who Should Win: Lincoln

I'm very excited to watch this category on Sunday. If Argo is headed towards a Best Picture victory, it needs Chris Terrio to win for Adapted Screenplay. Since the creation of the supporting acting categories, only one film (1940's Rebecca) has won Best Picture without also winning an award for acting, directing or writing. Ben Affleck didn't get nominated for directing and Alan Arkin's chances in Supporting Actor look grim, so Terrio's screenplay is the best option. The Academy voters have watched every other major award ceremony pile the awards on Argo, so unless they want to go against the steam entirely, they have to do something to build up the hype as the night goes on. Terrio's win at the Writers Guild Awards seems huge here.

DIRECTING

Nominees: Michael Haneke - Amour, Ang Lee - Life of Pi, David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook, Steven Spielberg - Lincoln, Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg
Who Should Win: a bunch of people not nominated

What a mess. This is the category that might ruin all the work I'm doing to predict these darn awards. At this point, the snubs of Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow are old news. We have to assume that Spielberg will emerge victorious amidst such a directionless (har har) year, but honestly, something super weird could happen here. Ang Lee is probably the most likely sleeper, but Lincoln is the textbook definition of Oscar bait and Spielberg hasn't won since Saving Private Ryan. If I had to pick a personal favorite out of the nominees, I'd go with Haneke, just because he'd probably murder me in my sleep if I didn't. I'm still mad about Bigelow, though.

Simon's Oscar Preview 2013: Special Feature Films

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly. 

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

Nominees: 5 Broken Cameras, The Gatekeepers (have not seen), How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War, Searching for Sugar Man

Who Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Who Should Win: How to Survive a Plague

Searching for Sugar Man seems to have this one locked up, but there are still some other excellent docs here. How to Survive a Plague and The Invisible War are both effective, emotionally charged films that tackle important topics and benefit from powerful footage and interviews. I have yet to see The Gatekeepers, but reviews have been wildly positive. 5 Broken Cameras is the lone film that doesn't seem capable of carrying its own weight and I would have loved to see The Imposter in its spot instead. Either way, Sugar Man and its manipulative narrative will likely be taking home the award on Sunday. 

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees: Amour, Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair, War Witch

Who Will Win: Amour
Who Should Win: Amour

This may be the most assured victory out of the entire field this year. Amour surprised everyone by hauling in five nominations, in the expected Foreign Language Film category, but also Screenplay, Actress, Director and Best Picture. Amour is a tremendous film and deserves all those accolades, but I do want to draw attention to some of the other worthy competitors from international cinema. No is another excellent film that you should all go see immediately. Even the largely ignored Kon-Tiki is worth a couple hours of your time. The Academy is slowly warming to international cinema and some strong films are getting rewarded as a result. 

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Nominees: Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, Wreck-It Ralph

Who Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph 
Who Should Win: Wreck-It Ralph

It's Disney vs. Disney this year, as Brave and Wreck-It Ralph battle it out for the top prize. A few years ago, the idea of Pixar losing this award would have been laughable, but the venerable animation studio has faltered over the past two years. Disney's in-house studio, by contrast, has been picking up steam. Wreck-It Ralph is an adorable, fun and exceedingly intelligent family movie, full of in-jokes and Easter eggs amidst the kinetic animation. I think Ralph is going stomp all over the competition, but Brave is far from dead at this point.

Simon's Oscar Preview 2013: Short Films

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Nominees: Asad, Buzkashi Boys, Curfew, Death of a Shadow (Dood Van Een Schaduw), Henry

Who Will Win: Curfew
Who Should Win: Death of a Shadow (Dood Van Een Schaduw)

The short films are probably the hardest to predict out of all twenty-four categories. Access can be limited and weighing the public consensus is near impossible. I am fortunate to live in a major city, so every year I get to go to a theater and watch the short film programs in one fell swoop. This year's Live Action shorts weren't the strongest group in recent memory. Death of a Shadow was far and away my personal favorite, starring the excellent Matthias Schoenaerts in a tense, heavily stylized sci-fi thriller. Asad was another standout, but it appears that Curfew is rising to the top of the heap in the eyes of Oscar prognosticators. Many of these films are available through iTunes, thanks to the kind people at Shorts International, and I encourage you all to check them out for yourself.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

Nominees: Adam and Dog, Fresh Guacamole, Head over Heels, Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare", Paperman

Who Will Win: Paperman
Who Should Win: Paperman

Disney's aggressively adorable Paperman must be the heavy favorite here. While none of the other nominees are weak by any stretch of the imagination, the style, story and technical innovations of Paperman are very hard to ignore. In field that feels full of highly accomplished student films, Paperman's overt professionalism and polish makes it stand out. Unlike the other short films, many of these nominees can be easily found with a bit of YouTube hunting. Go! Watch!

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

Nominees: Inocente (have not seen), Kings Point (have not seen), Mondays at Racine (have not seen), Open Heart (have not seen), Redemption (have not seen)

Who Will Win: Open Heart
Who Should Win: ?????

So... yeah. I haven't seen a single film nominated in this category. I try very hard each year to see everything up for an Oscar, but the Short Docs got away from me this time around. As such, I'm left with only a handful of unreliable reviews and betting websites for guidance. Thankfully, all of my sources seem to be coalescing around Open Heart, so I'll be putting my money there barring some new developments. Is there some great work hiding here, in plain sight? I have no idea.

Simon's Oscar Preview 2013: Technical Achievements

This week's schedule:
Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture

Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly. 

FILM EDITING

Nominees: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Who Will Win: Argo
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Let's not beat around the bush here: I believe Argo will win Best Picture. However, it faces a challenging and potentially historic road to get there, given its lack of a Best Director nomination. One thing that will help it on its way to victory will be picking up key awards, like Best Editing. Although it often gets lost in the shuffle of "those damn technical awards," Editing is closely linked to Best Picture wins, which makes sense when you sit down and think about it. The Academy has surprised us in this category before, but Argo seems like a very safe bet for now. 

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

Who Will Win: Life of Pi
Who Should Win: Skyfall

Please, for the love of all that is holy and sacred, can be please give Roger Deakins an award? The veteran cinematographer (nominated here for Skyfall) now has ten frickin' nominations without ever winning an Oscar. He's worked on some of my favorite films of all time, most notable The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, along with most of the Coen brothers' movies. Maybe, just maybe, he can beat out the established favorite, Claudio Miranda for Life of Pi. It would make me so very happy. 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Life of Pi, Marvel's The Avengers, Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman

Who Will Win: Life of Pi
Who Should Win: Life of Pi

Have you seen Life of Pi? Have you seen that CGI tiger? It's actually amazing and I totally understand why it will win this category. It's refreshing to see a film that uses visual effects in such an understated and naturalistic way, rather than going for something wildly stylized or aggressively otherworldly. There are plenty of worthy candidates in this field, but Life of Pi and its massively fake tiger should chow down on the other nominees.

SOUND EDITING

Nominees: Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty

Who Will Win: Skyfall
Who Should Win: Skyfall

Without an aggressive technical juggernaut like last year's Hugo, it appears that the technical awards are going to more spread out than in years past. Hopefully, this will include Skyfall snagging a much-deserved award for Sound Editing. Skyfall is a dense, taut film that benefits immensely from its detailed sound work. As with other categories, I'd be perfectly happy seeing Zero Dark Thirty win some awards, just on principle, but Skyfall is both more likely and more deserving.

SOUND MIXING

Nominees: Argo, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

Who Will Win: Les Misérables
Who Should Win: Skyfall

Okay, fine, I understand. Live singing, yadda yadda yadda. I guess that warrants some level of recognition. I happen to think that Les Mis' sound mixing wasn't always completely successful, but I do have to tip my (almost entirely irrelevant) cap to the ambition and scope of what Tom Hooper & Co. were trying to accomplish. Again, I think the sound work on Skyfall outpaces everything else in the category, but we do not live in a fair world. Perhaps if Tom Hooper zooms in incredibly close on my face and positions me slightly to the right of the frame while I sing, you'll understand my internal emotional state better.