Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture
Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Who Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Who Should Win: A Separation
Woody Allen has certainly built up momentum this year, winning top writing honors at the Golden Globes and at the Screenwriters' Guild Awards. The only outlier has been the BAFTAs, which awarded their Original Screenplay prize to The Artist. It should be noted that the Screenwriters' Guild could not nominate The Artist, since it was a French script and the Guild is an American concern. The Artist could very well win here, but my money is sticking with Allen. The Academy is going to have to spread the wealth around a bit, right? There is no doubt in my mind that A Separation is the best-written movie in this entire category (and possibly of the whole year), but it won't win. The nomination alone is a pleasant surprise, though.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Who Will Win: The Descendants
Who Should Win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Descendants was the other Screenwriters' Guild winner, which bodes well for its chances at the Oscars. Remember that there's significant overlap in the voting groups for all these awards, so don't expect their opinions to change between the Guild Awards and the Academy Awards. That said, the script for The Descendants is trite and obnoxious, so something a bit more snappy (say, Moneyball) could make a late run. Besides, the Academy loves Sorkin. Ugh. In this thin field, Tinker Tailor is my clear favorite, since it adapted a challenging, glacially slow spy drama into, well... a challenging, glacially slow spy drama. That's not a bad thing, if you ask me. It was a loyal, nuanced adaptation and it deserves the recognition over the rest of this feel-good, audience-pleasing crap.
DIRECTING
Who Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius
Who Should Win: Terrence Malik
I get a bit neurotic about the Best Director award. There's a common belief that the best overall film has the best director, but that often doesn't seem to be the case. A couple years ago, I was a big supporter of The Hurt Locker winning Best Picture... but I maintained that James Cameron deserved Best Director for Avatar. When it comes to directors, ambition and the ability to execute their vision win me over more than a collection of good performances or a charming story. Hazanavicius, who has already locked this award up for all intents and purposes, certainly fits that description. Guys, he made a goddamn black-and-white silent movie. Ambition. Vision. Yes. However, Malik's dissertation on life, religion and just about everything else blows The Artist out of the water from a directing standpoint. Malik won't win and The Tree of Life is certainly frustrating in its own way. I'll just always want to reward the risk takers over those directors who maintain the status quo.
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