Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture
Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Nominees: Demian Bichir - A Better Life, George Clooney - The Descendants, Jean Dujardin - The Artist, Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Brad Pitt - MoneyballWho Will Win: Jean Dujardin
Who Should Win: Jean Dujardin
No competition here at all. With Clooney and Pitt for all intents and purposes playing themselves, they're unlike to gain much traction with voters. Oldman's performance, while strong, is too minimal to attract much attention, while poor Demian Bichir gets to enjoy a token nomination that, while more-or-less deserved, will lead him nowhere near the big stage. Not only is Dujardin the winner by process of elimination, he also turned in a truly wonderful performance in The Artist. The fact that he conveyed George Valentin's depth and emotional journey without words only drives the point home more. Congrats, Jean, you did it. Hooray.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Who Will Win: Viola Davis
Who Should Win: Viola Davis
Best Actress is certainly an odd field this year. We have three very strong performances (Davis, Mara and Williams) jammed next two appalling ones (Close and the obligatory Meryl Streep). Davis won at the SAG Awards, but Streep has a few other awards under her belt for her agonizing portrayal of Margaret Thatcher, so who knows what madness the Academy will pull. If that whole "legacy" thing looms its ugly head and people decide too many years have passed since Meryl actually won something, I'll be more than a little upset. As for the good performances, picking a favorite is tough for me. The Help is certainly my least favorite of the three movies, but Viola Davis almost transcends the crowd-pleasing (and quite racist) premise of the film. Mara is intense as hell and Williams turns in some fantastic mimicry, but I think Davis' total acting package is the strongest of the lot.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer
Who Should Win: Kenneth Branagh
Plummer's victory here is about as sure as it can be. Put simply, he's won everything. Everything. All the other award shows have given him Supporting Actor honors. So, there's that. I found his performance in Beginners to be bland, boring and forgettable, but apparently, old guys kissing men win Oscars. Are we still at a point in culture where a straight actor playing a gay character is considered an acting challenge? I dearly hope not. Lost in the also-rans is Kenneth Branagh, who did some fantastic work playing Sir Laurence Olivier in My Week with Marilyn. Simultaneously mocking Olivier and himself, his pompous, judgmental character breathes some life into an otherwise routine biopic. Let the record also show that Jonah Hill is now an Academy-Award-nominated actor. I weep for the future.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer
Who Should Win: Octavia Spencer
Seriously, there's just no challenge in the acting awards this year. Spencer, like Plummer, has a mountain of acclaim behind her, although in her case, it's for good reason. The acting in The Help is generally fantastic and Spencer deserves this one. 2011 was a weak year for Supporting Actresses by my count, so even once you factor in performances that weren't nominated, I think Spencer has a claim to the top spot. I would have liked to see Chastain nominated for some of her other roles, but when you release seven films in a year, it's nice to see at least one of them snag you an Oscar nomination. As for Melissa McCarthy... let's just not talk about that, okay? Okay.
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