Monday - Art & Design, Music
Tuesday - Technical Achievements
Wednesday - Short Films, Special Feature Films
Thursday - Writing & Directing, Acting
Friday - Best Picture
Films I haven't seen are marked accordingly.
FILM EDITING
Who Will Win: The Artist
Who Should Win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
With the American Cinema Editors giving out their Eddie Awards last night, the Editing category has become fairly clear cut. Mirroring the Golden Globes, The Descendants won for drama, while The Artist won for comedy/musical. As I've mentioned many times in the past, there is a trend of Best Editing and Best Picture going to the same movie, meaning The Artist has to be the favorite here. As for my Dragon Tattoo pick, some might question how well edited a two-and-half-hour movie really can be. I suggest those skeptics pay a closer attention to every scene in the film where a character drives, walks or moves from one location to another. A poorly edited movie would drag those pensive moments of travel out until they were unbearable. Dragon Tattoo wastes no time, giving you one establishing car shot before throwing its next barrage of abuse at you. Impressive stuff, I'd say.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Who Will Win: The Tree of Life
Who Should Win: The Tree of Life
All five nominees bring some impressive work to the table here, but five-time Oscar nominee Emmanuel Lubezki should finally win his long-deserved award. The Tree of Life is nothing short of gorgeous and the Cinematography Guild Awards have already given it their blessing. Lubezki's expansive vision and technical skill are excellent pairings with Terrence Malik's methodical brand of storytelling and ambition. This is likely the only award Tree will win on Sunday, but it will certainly be deserved.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Who Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Who Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
It's nice to see a category this year that isn't easy to predict. The VES Awards were split between Hugo and Apes, making this seem like a battle between understated, subtle cinema magic and highly expressive monkeys. My vote is currently with the apes and I feel the Academy will agree with me. There was some talk about Andy Serkis getting a Supporting Actor nom for his excellent, motion-captured performance as the ape Caesar, but the character's charisma comes from the outstanding effects work as much as it does from Serkis' physical acting skills. Sorry, fighting robots. You'll have to wait yet another year to make it onto the Oscar stage.
SOUND EDITING
Who Will Win: Hugo
Who Should Win: Hugo
Not much drama here. All those ticking clocks and screeching prosthetic legs in Hugo seem to have locked this one up. My beloved Drive received its only nomination here and I'd love to see in win just out of spite towards the whole Academy. That said, I can't say that Hugo doesn't deserve this award. Yes, the film is a technical achievement. It should win these technical awards. As long as it doesn't win Screenplay, I'm fine.
SOUND MIXING
Who Will Win: Hugo
Who Should Win: Hugo
Similar award, similar nominees, similar result. I wish I could have been present at the meeting where the Academy decided that Moneyball's sound mixing was this exemplary, but I just have to assume that someone, somewhere knows what they're doing. Maybe the dry crack of the bat on the baseball will strike a chord with voters. Maybe that grating noise you hear every time a robot turns into a car in the Transformers movies has finally brainwashed the Academy. Any of these movies could win. Technically. The chance of victory for each one is above zero percent. Yet, Hugo will win. Almost certainly.
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